Keir Starmer's Backers Initiate 'Stop Andy Burnham' Campaign to Thwart Mayor's Commons Return

Close associates of Labour leader Keir Starmer have allegedly kicked off a concerted initiative to stop Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Mayor of Greater Manchester, from making a comeback to the House of Commons. This action comes after the resignation of a Manchester MP, which has prompted an upcoming byelection.

Major Hurdles in the Candidate Selection Procedure

A number of figures on the Labour Party's ruling national executive committee (NEC) have apparently predicted it would be virtually impossible for Mr. Burnham to navigate the candidate selection process. This is largely due to the sizable presence of supporters of the Prime Minister on the body who are desperate to avoid any future challenge to Starmer's leadership.

The party apparatus is said to have mobilised following the announcement of the MP's intended resignation, with officials and MPs voicing warnings about the substantial expense and electoral danger of a subsequent election for mayor in Greater Manchester.

The Mayor's Aspirations and Internal Disquiet

Andy Burnham has made no secret of his national ambitions. Last year, he caused outrage within No 10 and among cabinet ministers when he stated that numerous MPs had encouraged him to run for the Labour leadership.

It has long been believed that he is aiming for a seat in the Commons to potentially contest the party leadership if a contest to Sir Keir arise. Nevertheless, supporters of the Mayor have warned against exaggerating the level of any scheming, stating he is passionate about his job as mayor and would solely return national politics if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," one ally said.

Current Climate and Poll Ratings

Amid polls indicating Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's fate at the next election, Andy Burnham is seen as the sole senior Labour figure with favourable ratings with the public.

If Mr. Burnham decide to run, several obstacles stand in his way. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the odds are not in his favour—and then secure victory in the byelection against challenges from Reform and pro-Gaza independents, all before any possible leadership challenge.

The 'Stop Andy' Campaign

High-ranking Labour figures have said that a "Block Burnham" campaign is already in progress, with the party machinery being closely managed by key allies of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister himself said that the byelection process was in its "initial phases" and urged his MPs to cease discussion of possible contests for the leadership.

Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's resignation was finalised, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Costs and Risks

Figures on the committee have reportedly cited not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could divert an estimated £500,000 in campaign funds from other crucial elections across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," one source said.

Several sources also expressed concerns about Nigel Farage’s party potentially fill any vacancy left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major political win for them.

Role of the Unions and Procedural Fears

Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to stand. It is also possible the committee could enforce an all-female shortlist to block his nomination.

However, one Burnham ally counselled against assuming the NEC would automatically block his candidacy, despite Sir Keir's team is largely believed to dominate it.

The unions hold a significant proportion of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are currently remaining quiet, sources indicated they would be uncomfortable with anything seen as interference from Downing Street.

The general secretary of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

By-election Battle

The seat in question holds a sizable Labour majority. However, Reform is likely to mount a strong campaign, capitalising on support in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on firmer ground in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could face a challenge from independent candidates.

If Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to mount a bid for the leadership, a requirement that is far from certain given he is regarded with caution by a number of on the backbenches.

The departing MP confirmed he was stepping down due to deteriorating health, which had made it untenable for him to continue in his role. He also remains subject to a standards inquiry related to his membership in an inappropriate online group.