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At first, Donald Trump gave the impression to take a resolute stance concerning the Ukrainian conflict. Following delivering warnings of "serious consequences" during the summer in case Putin carried on hindering ceasefire discussions, he eventually imposed considerable penalties on the Russian primary petroleum corporations, Rosneft and Lukoil. This decision seriously hindered Putin's ability to finance his aggression in the region.

However, through his recently unveiled 28-point peace plan for Ukraine, reportedly developed by both nations' officials excluding Ukraine's or European involvement, the former president has apparently reverted to his pro-Putin stance.

Favoring Invasion

The former president's proposal would essentially favor Putin for invading Ukraine while placing the country's democratic system in peril. Despite ringing declarations that "Ukraine's sovereignty will be confirmed", large portions of the plan effectively weaken that same independence. This constitutes a Moscow's wish would likely be a disaster for Ukraine.

Showing his business background, the former president seems to view the situation in Ukraine as a basic border issue, implying giving Russia a section of Ukraine's soil will appease the president. Yet, Russia's military campaign is not merely about dominating a charred region of deindustrialized area in the Donbas region. It is about the nation's political system – and Putin's clear intention to weaken it so it no longer acts as an enticing standard for the Russian people of the responsible governance that Putin's deepening autocracy withholds them.

Border Surrenders

While freezing in place the presently separated Ukrainian provinces of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, the plan would force Ukraine to abandon the entire Donetsk province. In addition to rewarding Russia with land that its forces have been unable to occupy in exceeding a decade of warfare, this concession would leave Ukrainian defenses severely undermined.

The area is the location of Ukraine's highly-touted "stronghold system", the well-established protective structures that represent a key barrier to invading forces. The proposal would have Ukraine abandon these fortifications, giving Putin a open route to the capital if he subsequently opt to resume the war.

Armed Forces Limitations

Additionally, in a step that would facilitate future conflict more feasible for Russia, Trump would mandate Ukraine to reduce the size of its troops from their current approximately 800,000 personnel to a cap of this lower number. Importantly, Trump's proposal imposes no equivalent limits on Russia's military.

In what appears as a concession to Putin's efforts to portray Ukraine's chosen by the people leadership as Nazis, Trump's plan asserts: "Every radical ideology and activities must be rejected and prohibited." Apparently to highlight this element, it requires that "Ukraine will hold elections in three months" of a ceasefire agreement. At the same time, Trump places no requirement that Putin risk his authoritarian rule by allowing democratic processes in Russia.

Security Guarantees

Admittedly, the initiative makes the Russian Federation commit not to "invade bordering nations" and to "incorporate in legislation its position of non-violence towards the EU and the Ukrainian people". Yet given that Putin has violated equivalent treaties in the past – for example the 1994 agreement, in which the Russian government promised to recognize the nation's sovereignty in return for surrendering its former Soviet nuclear weapons, and the previous peace deals, in which Moscow committed to a truce and a restoration of occupied territory in the Donbas to the government – how should the international community have confidence in Russia on this occasion?

This explains the Ukrainian government has been so determined on western defense commitments. Although the plan threatens a "decisive joint defense action" in case Russia restart its military campaign, and states that "The nation will receive strong defense commitments", the details include fuzzy to alarming. The proposal would not only deny the nation Nato membership but also prevent Nato members from stationing forces on Ukrainian territory, thus precluding the peacekeeping contingent, likely headed by Britain and France, on which the Ukrainian government had been counting to deter Russia from replenishing his diminished forces, re-equipping, and resuming aggression.

World Response

A separate parallel deal reportedly would offer Ukraine with a Nato-style security guarantee, in which any future "serious, deliberate, and ongoing armed attack" by Russia on Ukraine "shall be regarded as an attack endangering the tranquility of the allied countries." This implies a defense action. Yet unlike a powerful national defense – Ukraine's best protection against future hostilities – the success of the parallel accord would hinge on the willingness of Western powers, like Trump, to respond militarily to Russia's aggression, an action they have {not